The retail prices of meat are projected to grow over the coming five years by up to 2.2% per annum.
The output produced by the Australian meat processing industry can be classified into three broad categories: beef and veal meat, lamb and mutton, and pig meat.
About 70% of meat produced in the industry is beef and veal. According to ABARE projections, Australian meat processors will produce 2.1 million tonnes of beef and veal in 2008-09. In 2008-09, lamb and mutton production is forecast to total 604 kilotonnes and pig meat to total 375 kilotonnes. Lamb and mutton production appears to be increasing, relative to beef, veal and pig production.
In addition, Australia also produces a small amount of goat meat. According to the Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations, Australia produced 16,750 tonnes in 2006. Greater export demand, more diversified eating patterns, and the long-term trend of declining wool returns are believed to be a major contributor to this pattern.
The majority of meat sold by processors is intended for human consumption. The nature of meat processing varies according to the intended end use. Meat processors sell frozen, chilled and fresh meat which may be cut into steaks, chops and roasting portions, or minced. A smaller proportion of output is sold for animal consumption.
In 2008-09, the industry is expected to export meat products worth $7.4 billion. This represents 61% of total industry revenue. Although Australia only produces 4% of the global beef supply, it is the second largest beef exporter in the world. The value of these exports is forecast to fall to $4.1 billion in 2008-09 (ABARE). Most processed beef and veal is exported to the United States and Japan. In 2008-09, the industry is expected to export 365,000 tonnes to Japan and approximately 242,000 tonnes to the United States. Other major beef markets include South Korea, Canada and Taiwan.
The local market for red meat is primarily divided into five major categories: the food service industry, supermarkets, wholesalers, institutions, and food manufacturers.
According to IBISWorld, over the five years to June 2014, industry revenue is forecast to increase of 0.4% per annum. Over the outlook period, a modest increase in production of about 1.4% per annum on average is forecast using ABARE data. However, export values are forecast to decline marginally per annum over the outlook period, which will have a strong dampening effect on industry revenue growth.
Domestically, there is expected to be only modest growth in consumption by volume of 1.5% per annum on average and marginal growth in prices.
Lena Zak is the editor of FOOD Magazine.